2009 FORECAST

Looking into my new HD 1080p crystal ball i see the following changes in 2009.

1. POLITICS

I reckon 2009 will go down as the year the politics of the land changed.A keen observer will notice that the populace and the politicians are marching to different tunes.The politicians(ODM,PNU,Kanu,Shiriskisho.......etc) are talking about the 2012 election and the constitution.Wananchi are talking about the cost of food,security and how the global crisis will affect us(the intelligent ones).It seems that the current political class has lost its 'people' touch.Whenever, this happens in any society then change as Mutahi Ngunyi puts it is around the corner.

If you doubt that change is coming-take a look at how the two principals spent their New year's Eve.Number 2 and Number 3 spent it amongst wealthy Kenyans and foreigners at the Coast(at those places where beer is Ksh 200 /bottle).Number 1 vukaed privately.None of them showed solidarity with the average Mwananchi.An astute politician aka MOI would have held an evening party but ensured that the ordinary councillor,teacher and such kind of people that never get invited to similar events are in attendance.In addition, he would have toured the IDP camps and showed solidarity with them.

2.BANKING

The past 5 years have been charcterised by the phenomenal growth in personal loans.Remember, when you had people accosting you in the street,promising Kssh 1 million loans with only your payslip as security?

CBK will allow people to buy Treasury bills from as low as Ksh 100,000.This will give money market funds and Fixed deposit accounts in banks competition.Banks will have to come up with new strategies for raising funds.This ought to put downward pressure on interest rates.

The Oga's-Ecobank and UBA are in town.2009 is their year to entrench themselves in the market.

The question for 2009 is; how will banks make money if they reduce lending and Government securities are offering lower returns?

3.Global Economy

2009 will only serve up more bad news.The developed world is suffering from a demographic and over capacity problem.The late Leon Levy predicted the current crash by noting that in his observation there was no product or service that the western world required that was in short supply.

Expect to see the Dow below 7000 at some point in 2009.

Nikolai Kondratieff-(Russian economist who was executed by Stalin) said that the Western economy operates within 60-70 year cycles waves i.e. every 60-70 years we have a severe economic contraction.If the last large contraction was in the 1930s then the...(go figure when the next one is/was due)