I'M BACK.....
Hi bloggers, its great to be back after a couple of weeks of doing nothing but traveling and reading a few books that i wanted to read(will do a review some time).Also watched some great DVDs.
Now on to what i do best(or love).

The market
The NSE has really gyrated around and from reading the papers all manner of experts had all kinds of answers for the Yo-Yo's.I noticed that Globalisation is here with us.i.e. We as a country can no longer afford to MANUFACTURE some products in Kenya.We don't have a low-cost base as a country.My recommendation is that the following companies should cease Manufacturing in the country coz it ain't helping their shareholders.

EVEREADY
Given the high cost of ZInc and other raw materials, no matter how good the manufacturing plant at Nakuru is.It will never produce cheaply either on a volume or cost base to counter overseas imports. The best thing the company can do is to import all the required batteries from low cost sources and sell them over their current marketing and Distribution Network.

Otherwise, with the current strategy all i see are losses and low profits in the medium term.Since, the market for batteries is on price and quality(quality refers to lithium-ion(which aren't manufactured in Kenya)batteries NOT zinc chloride.
The other consumers who have never heard of Lithium ion are more interested in price i.e. if a battery is half EVEREADY's price then its a good battery.

SAMEER TYRES
We don't have the volume of tyre sales to justify a manufacturing plant.We are better off importing from elsewhere in the COMESA read EGYPT) and selling the tyres here.Apparently, this is what BRIDGESTONE had in mind before pulling out of Firestone Tyres.But local shareholders wanted to keep manufacturing here to safeguard jobs.Too bad those 'jobs' had to be axed in a recent restructuring of the tyre firm.

I also think that the YANA brand should be axed unless, its going to be positioned as an ultra cheap tyre.Imagine buying your Range Rover sport and having YANA on your sidewalls.Highly unlikely eh? you most probably will have Pirelli ZEROs or BRIDEGSTONE something on your sidewalls.
Inspite, of all the marketing i dont think YANA will ever have the Brand catchet of PIRELLI or BRIDGESTONE.
But if its cheap matatus and the rest of us can buy the YANA's and fix them on our cars.

The only thing i like is the Real Estate/Business Park plan.it is brilliant.

NSE... ......

NSE has been moving lower for most of January.The'spectators and comentators' have been calling it the January effect.I call it a lesson and an opportunity.The unbroken two year rally had engendered a group of 'Investors' who believed that share prices only move in one DIRECTION-UP, UP and further UP.

Here are some counters whose high valuation baffles me.Remember, there are only TWO ways to make money on stocks:

1. CAPITAL GAINS-Buy low sell high or short a stock( buy high sell low and pocket the difference) Or Buy a share at Sh 50 and Sell at sh 100.

2. DIVIDENDS-Get paid a portion of the profits at the year end.

HFCK

It has no competitive advantage in its field i.e Any new product or innovation that it launches can be easily copied by its rivals with deeper pockets like S&L(a KCB subsidiary),Stanbic,Barclays.They must find capital for long-term lending.their best bet is to fold into a bigger bank(merger).Otherwise dont expect a dividend cheque any time soon.

Dont forget its competitor in the mortgage sector EABS folded into Akiba Bank.So if you bought it at sh.60 hope it goes to Sh.100, you may have to wait for a while.

I think the banking sector in Kenya will morph into two groups through mergers/acquisitions:-

(1)Large full- house finacial groups encompassing everthing from insurance to Fund management/stock-broking.Potential candidates of this model are: Barclays,Equity,KCB, JHL/Diamond Trust/Habib

(2) Specialist Banks with an edge in certain complex or key fields.Potential candidates are: STANCHART,CITIBANK

EmergingAfrica has a nice post on the Banking industry consolidation here.

MjengaKenya talks about Barclays+Equity here

MUMIAS

Latest results show why Agricultural firms are so volatile.The Long term factors affecting its Sugar production are unlikely to turn positive soon.These Factors are like:-

-Land-As the farmers sub-divide farming land amongst their progeny, planting/harvesting costs will rise.

-Labour costs-Unless they mechanise harvesting of cane, these costs will only go one way-UP

-Plant/factory maintenace-Ever heard BAT or Bamburi complain that they had costs in their factories' that are unexplained? EXACTLY, So how come they cant explain where all the ineficiencies are coming from?

BAT/Bamburi always specify the exact cause of the inefficiency

-Weather-Bad weather i.e drought affects cane production

The only bright spot is the Distribution Network which is good and extensive.Sold my shares at a loss, waiting to pick them up at a lower price in the future.
They also dont have a website(in this age of blogs)

P.S. the employees and farmers only took 40% of their Allocation in the secondary IPO.The Allocation is here on Riba's blog

SCANGROUP

It's in an industry where any of the current and former employees can start a similar outfit and in 12 months take all their business.For instance, the Value of REDSKY(recent Scangroup acquisition) isnt in its physical Assets but the Creative minds and contracts that REDSKY has.

Thats why Warren Buffet and other Long-term investors rarely have large stakes in such companies in their portfolios.

Ask yourself if there are any barriers to entry to the Scangroup business sector?. In a firm with physical/tangible assets e.g. EABL new talent can be found to run it.But a firm with soft/intellectual resources/assets e.g. ADvertising the Human Resource is the Asset , it leaves thats it.

SAMEER

Too much compe' from imported tyres.I think they should relocate their production to EGYPT(under COMESA), after all Colgate-Palmolive,Cadbury and others cant be wrong on this.

News to use

By the way the NSE has upgraded its site.Good Job! Mr. Mwebesa and everyone else at the bourse.

OVERHEAD at a Brokers' Office

When your client's stock portfolio is underwater. You tell him it is a Long-Term Portfolio