AS I SEE IT...SECURITY AND THE FUTURE
Today i will concentrate on our political rather than economic state.After all politics affects the economy.i.e. siasa mbaya ,maisha mbaya.My view of politicians is that they are all liars and opportunists.
I think the following facts are agreed upon by everyone across the political divide.
I-The December 27,2007 elections were flawed.
II-Both ODM and PNU areas had voting irregularities.Hence,it's a case of who cheated more rather than who didn't cheat.
III-A vote re-count or Presidential election run-off won't solve the current crisis.
IV- Not withstanding the furore over the elections Kibaki is the legally recognised President
Where are we?
At present the crisis has degenerated from a simple(As if u can call the loss of life simple), election dispute to a tribal conflict.The two main reasons as to why the crisis has degenerated are:
1) The Government has not handled the rioters' with an iron fist.
The USA made a similar mistake on 'liberating' Iraq.They declared all Baath Party members(Baath was like KANU in the 1980s,membership was mandatory for all) unwanted and stripped them of their jobs.Then,they overlooked looting and low level crime.Because,the USA did't want to appear like a heavy handed occupation force.Big mistake, the first edict immediately disbanded the internal security forces of Iraq and created an atmosphere of lawlessness.
The looters then graduated onto bigger crimes of robbery and kidnapping.The recently, jobless Baathists provided a recruitment ground for insurgents and criminal gangs.Iraq was then engulfed in secterian violence and crime for the next three years.The situation has only improved recently through a combination of US sponsored militia(the US had to arm some of its former enemies to fight al qaeda),an ammendment allowing Baathists to get their old jobs back and tough tactics from the US military.
In order, to maintain law and order we must crack down hard on any one blocking ROADS or DAMAGING any other infrastructure.Special courts ought to be set up to try and sentence such individuals quickly(say two weeks).
The military should be given the responsibility of keeping the northern corridor(Mombasa-Malaba)-Northern corridor road open.Military forces tend to perform well when given a specific task with clearly defined objectives.Then the Police and GSU can be tasked with civil disturbances away from the roads.
Once, the roads are clear the economy can hobble along while politicians take the next couple of weeks in negotiations.If the transport infrastructure isn't open, then more people will be laid off or won't be able to work adding to the number of idlers who can participate in riots and disturbances.
2)ODM started 'mass action' without an end-game
The party did nothing to control its supporters in the first two weeks of violence.Merely, blaming government restrictions on their political activities.The reaction in most ODM zones was spontaneous(to the best of my knowledge).however,the youth were awaiting further instructions from their leaders ODM leaders failed to go to their respective home turfs and talk to the youth.As a result the orange revolution was stolen by criminal elements.For instance,in Kisumu it degenerated into wanton looting and robbery.It has created an economic and security problem that will take the lakeside time a long time to recover from.Eldoret ,Naivasha and Nakuru are in a similar situation.
ODM is a tribal coalition, (so is PNU).If in doubt look at the criteria for picking Pentagon memebrs.However,the chaos has has degenerated into inter tribal fighting among some of the tribes in the coalition.How long the coalition will hold is another issue.For instance,what will happen when to the coalition when thugs from one coalition tribe rob another?Will the victims look at it as simple robbery or consider it tribal warfare?
Can you imagine what the situation would be if the Party split up?
The violence in the ODM areas is because the youth lack LEADERSHIP AND DIRECTION.ODM shouldn't think that its support is unassailable.Human nature is extremenly fickle.The youth who chased away 'foreigners' have started to attack locals.The longer the insecurity,school closures and disruption to trade persist in those areas, the more the erosion in the party's support.The average man will ask himself if it's worth it?
Does any one remember the opinion poll last year where Kenyan favoured Kalonzo Musyoka as our next President?
The average Kenyan is more concerned with security and peace.However,the politicians are still trying to prove that their side won the elections.The insecurity is likely to cause more damage to the country than the failure to count votes properly.
The two protagonists may be sidelined by a THIRD FORCE as they argue over a non event(at present the Electoral results aren't the main issue) while the country burns.This is what Paul Kagame had in mind.The country seems rudderless on the political front.As they say 'POWER ABHORS A VACUUM'
The Government should act tougher on security.without security the Government loses its legitmacy and the Economy is in the tank.The time to Act is NOW, before the inaction and National rot seeps into the security forces.Dont fear what people think,people love security more than civil liberties.Remember George Bush 9/11 and his new Anti-terror laws?
ODM leaders should stop issuing statements in Nairobi.Go back home talk to your constituents,Let the schools open in Nyanza and Rift Valley,fight the crime and resetlle the evicted.If the KCSE,KCPE registrations end without Nyanza and /Rift Valley schols opening,the cost to your supporters(Who are Kenyans like everybody else) will be too high.
If the planting season ends in Rift Valley without calm returning,then the country faces starvation in 2009 and the residents poverty regardless of who the President is.
Once,you lose the people's support the righteousness of your cause is immaterial ,no body cares.
Whether you are ODM or PNU the current crisis threatens the stability of the Government,opposition Party and most of all the country.
The article above may not be to everybody's taste but I've tried to speak the truth(as i see it) without being partisan.I hope it doesn't offend anyone.If you are offended my apologies.
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