The Economy...Intangibles ......our stupidity
The economy is like faith. it is moved by factors that are not tangible.Hence, many developed economies around the world have Business Confidence indices i.e. the higher the business confidence, the better the economy's performance.
The current crisis will eventually subside.My guess is that by the end of March we will have a solution to the problem.However, whether that solution will be palatable to all, i don't know.You may NOT like the taste of Quinine but it can cure malaria.(get the drift?)
The lack of confidence means that even if normal business resumes in Eldoret,Nakuru,Kisumu and Mombasa and the displaced return, the local community won't make substantial investments in those areas.
For Kisumu, the likes of United Mall are unlikely to be built for a while.Uganda underwent a similar situation for about ten years after the end of the Bush war in 1986.For instance, the average Ugandan proffessional started building and buying houses from around year 2000.Over 10 years after the end of the war.
Once,peace is restored most people in Kenya won't be sure how long they can live before the next violent outbreak.Don't expect them to build 10 bedroom mansions or build retirement homes.Hence, expect the next Kenyan fad will be to have a second/third home in Dubai.UK and South Africa are ruled out beacsue the former has too mant taxes and the latter has Jacob Zuma and Power rationing.
The legal cost to business/economy.
Hernando De Soto's book 'The Mystery of Capital: Why Capitalism Triumphs in the West and Fails Everywhere Else.'said that it is because the poor in developing countries don't have property rights and cannot monetise/mortgage their assets(land) for capital.
The current crisis has made Title deeds void i.e. the fact that you have a title deed or lease certificate is useless as long as the locals in an area won't allow you to live or develop a certain area.Hence, you well tended 5 acre tea and dairy farm in the Rift Valley, can't get you a loan at the nearest Bank.
The losers in the current situation are:
Do you think you can auction any land/houses pledged as security in Kisumu or Eldoret? If you do, then can you get a market price for it?
Since, you can't got to court for legal redress or to the elders(there aren't any around), what do you do to solve your problem?You guessed right, a small proportion of people(the stupid ones) will take the law into their hands.
In the current state,even if you obtained judgement against a debtor how do you enforce it or collect it? It is difficult to attach property in the current environment.As a result businesses will become more averse to granting Credit which is the KY Jelly that enables consumption in the economy.Less lubrication(read credit), less economic growth
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