NEW YEAR ,NEW PROBLEMS

Let's hope the year ends better than it started. I have been away for the holidays and work. My condolences to all of you who have lost friends, family, colleagues and property in the current political crisis.

Let’s hope we deal with the root causes of the crisis which are poverty, inequality and rabble rousing politicians who are the matchstick that lit our flame. South America, South Africa and Nigeria have the same problems as Kenya. However, the problems manifest themselves through kidnapping, armed insurgency and drug trafficking in South America. In Nigeria the crime and constant coups in the past. In South Africa via violent crime and xenophobia.

Aside from that I think this will be great year for the market. Why?

1. Inflation

It will be high in the current year. Generally inflation tends to erode the value of money. For instance, bread is now Ksh 35/loaf from Ksh 23 a year ago. You still get the same loaf (500gm) but you must spend more money i.e. Ksh 12 to get the same 500gm.

2. Real Estate slump

I don’t think the high end of the market will go anywhere soon. The current chaos will make wealthy Kenyans think of buying second, third or even fourth homes overseas. I see UK (If u can get around the tax implications for non-resident property owners), UAE, Tanzania and even Australia get some of this Kenyans.

3. Uncertainty creates opportunities

Opportunities are present in the current environment for the clever investor. There is only one rider 'YOU NEED CASH TO SEIZE THE OPPORTUNITIES'

Therefore, you must be in cash (but u will get whacked by inflation) or near cash situations.

That leaves only one place to place your money-Stocks.