PREDICTIONS
January's almost over,here are my belated observations on who,what and how 2008 will turnout. People The following individual will make the headlines:

Muthoni Wanyeki
She has come a long way from her FEMNET- gender activism days.She's just about to become a national face.I must admit back then i thought she was one of these overeducated Kenyans who tend to give overly complicated solutions.Time has proved me wrong.

Muthoni offers a fresh and sometimes unconventional way of analysing our collective problems as a nation and sugesting/implementing new solutions. For more about her bio await the Sunday Nation featurette.

Mutahi Ngunyi
Kenya's best political analyst.He has a fine grasp of the tactical and strategic political landscape.Uncannily accurate predictions that are sometimes years ahead of his peers(who specialise in pathetic,bombastic TV soundbites) He ought to have a blog. In 2008 Kenyans will pay more attention to his analysis given the current political climate.

Musalia Mudavadi
The perfect compromise candidate.In the struggle for a new political order,expect him to be nominated for some post.

Cyrus Jirongo Political survivor,you haven't heard the last of him.Expect him to challenge Musalia for their tribal leadership position.

Companies
Chinese car companies
All those Greatwall car brands wil push to be more recognisablea and be better known in the Kenyan market. Unfortunately, most of these cars are clones of better known models like Isuzu and Toyota

Forex Trading Companies
Royal, Genius and similar outfits are offering training on how to trade forex.They claim that the training will enable you to make huge profits from trading forex.The truth is that if it were that easy to trade`forex and make money, then Banks wouldn't spend money hiring forex traders(Treasury dealers) from each other.
They would just spend Ksh 30,000 or Ksh 75,000 train one of their tellers and voila make huge profits through him. This year the 'investors' may probably realise how 'useful' the training is.

A small proportion of the people taking the courses will make money.The vast majority 95% plus ,will never make money.

My advice- 'A fool and his money are soon parted'.

Society

Police Reservists
I expect them to make a return.The current political crisis is going to increase the levels of insecurity.To maintain security, the civillian populace in an area must be involved.Police reservists are one way of doing it.The reservists are members of the community who are trained and armed in order to assist in maintenace of law and order in an area.

NEW YEAR ,NEW PROBLEMS

Let's hope the year ends better than it started. I have been away for the holidays and work. My condolences to all of you who have lost friends, family, colleagues and property in the current political crisis.

Let’s hope we deal with the root causes of the crisis which are poverty, inequality and rabble rousing politicians who are the matchstick that lit our flame. South America, South Africa and Nigeria have the same problems as Kenya. However, the problems manifest themselves through kidnapping, armed insurgency and drug trafficking in South America. In Nigeria the crime and constant coups in the past. In South Africa via violent crime and xenophobia.

Aside from that I think this will be great year for the market. Why?

1. Inflation

It will be high in the current year. Generally inflation tends to erode the value of money. For instance, bread is now Ksh 35/loaf from Ksh 23 a year ago. You still get the same loaf (500gm) but you must spend more money i.e. Ksh 12 to get the same 500gm.

2. Real Estate slump

I don’t think the high end of the market will go anywhere soon. The current chaos will make wealthy Kenyans think of buying second, third or even fourth homes overseas. I see UK (If u can get around the tax implications for non-resident property owners), UAE, Tanzania and even Australia get some of this Kenyans.

3. Uncertainty creates opportunities

Opportunities are present in the current environment for the clever investor. There is only one rider 'YOU NEED CASH TO SEIZE THE OPPORTUNITIES'

Therefore, you must be in cash (but u will get whacked by inflation) or near cash situations.

That leaves only one place to place your money-Stocks.